Monday, March 21, 2016

Testing the limits of my enjoyment

As readers might be able to tell, I like science.   Always have.  Read a lot of kids' science books in primary school, sometimes, for example, spending pocket money on buying a new "How and Why" book - remember those?  And people gave me children's encyclopaedias as a gift, or books about space.  (Happily, even in Year 8 I got a spacey book from school as some sort of achievement prize.  I think I'm remembering this right - I still have it on the shelf and should check.)

This is by way of background to explaining that I have taken particular enjoyment in helping my kids with their school science.   Honestly, for parents like me, I wouldn't mind if the school could just sent me the assignment and cut out the middle child.  (I'm joking - sort of...)

But this weekend, my patience on this was tested.  

My son had to a write up of an experiment on Newtons laws of motion (so far, so good); but the experiment set up was this:  rolling two different sized (different weight) marbles down a slope and measuring the time taken.  Not only that, but it was done on four different surfaces (carpet, wood, pipe, and some non slip mat.)

He did this at school, and got some results.  (I had to learn about Excels charting functions to make him do the bar charts better though.   Now we both know.)

But the problem is with the interpretation and discussion section.

Let me assure you, dear reader, that any time spent Googling the topic such as "does a heavier ball roll down a slope faster than a lighter ball" will quickly show you that this is a topic that causes massive confusion, and is actually very complicated and well beyond the simple "Newtons three laws of motion."   (If you think I'm exaggerating, go have a look.   It's a topic that is much worse than the more straight forward "why do objects fall at the same rate under gravity in a vacuum.")

It really drove me a bit crazy trying to work out what my son could legitimately and accurately say regarding this, given the relatively light exposure to Newton that a Year 10 student gets.  I think I came up with some useful suggestions, but did the silly teacher really have to complicate this further by the use of different surfaces? 

This is by far the worst science assignment my son's teacher had ever me work on, and I expect better next time!

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Well, that makes voting for Bill Shorten easier...


So, Wilson got pre-selection by 142 to 140 votes.   Reminiscent of the start of the Tony Abbott climb to the position of Most Embarrassingly Weird Prime Ministership since Federation, really.  I expect pretty much the same of Timbo's parliamentary career.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Watching Joan

Wow, that Luc Besson 1990's Joan of Arc (on SBS tonight) looks absolutely fantastic, and is very enjoyable in its over the top sort of way.   I see that Besson made it after the truly awful Fifth Element, yet it was that film which was his critical and commercial success.   How wrong is that?


A good, odd list

From the BBC, I learn that there is an annual prize for oddest book title of the year.  The shortlist for this year does sounds enticing:

Actually, that last one might have some information on something I find odd - the matter of medieval belief that witches would happily kiss Satan's infernal you-know-what.   (Oh look, it has a Wikipedia entry.)  Doesn't that seem a rather odd myth, and hard to fathom how it started?*   Now that I think of it, what does the (much less specific) "kiss my ass" derive from?

* But then again, how did any weird story about what witches could do get started.  I read about this one years ago:
 German clergyman Heinrich Kramer described the epidemic in Malleus Maleficarum (1486)—one of the most famous medieval treatises on witches—writing: “Witches ... collect male organs in great numbers, as many as 20 or 30 members together, and put them in a bird’s nest, or shut them in a box.” But the disembodied penises didn’t just hang around. “They move themselves like living members and eat oats and corn, as has been seen by many,” Kramer wrote.
 It's the little detail of "eating oats and corn" that really floors me as a bizarre thing to dream up.

The paranoid style in Australian politics

There's nothing like a stupid university student office invasion/demonstration/semi ransack to bring out the  "crack them over the head with batons/just shoot them" reaction from those who comment at Catallaxy.

And yes, of course it was stupid and pointless and damaging, and some arrests based on video identification would be well deserved.

But long time commenter CL, who has a paranoid streak a mile wide about how leftists are out to get Catholics, and gays are out to get the children, now thinks queer university students are out to kill conservative's wives, apparently:

Oh, and anti smoking campaigners - it's personal, didn't you know?:

I wonder if he's still a smoker.  It apparently contributes to paranoia.

Petty

I find it pretty distasteful the way Andrew Bolt and Tim Blair  (more or less) high five themselves when their media opposition downscales journalist jobs.  All tied up with their campaign against "leftists" generally, and the ABC for allegedly crowding out the news media here.

This argument is beloved of their aging, remarried boss; except that I don't see how it can account for the fact that American newpapers, without anything like a government funded media outlet competitor, have been suffering exactly the same decline for the last decade or so.

And let's face it:  apart from the basic news services, commercial TV here gave up serious domestic and international journalism decades ago in favour of magazine TV.   Was this due to ABC "crowding out"?  I doubt it. 


Still sounds 'orrible..

Dance yourself happy: the rise of the sober rave | Music | The Guardian

Tim and the pre-selection

Funny how The Australian and Andrew Bolt are coming out strongly in support of professional self promoter Tim Wilson in his pre-selection run.   Does Bolt's son still work for the IPA?   I almost feel he should make a disclosure of that before he does one of his puff pieces on how suitable ex IPA people are as Liberal politicians, because it will be only be another couple of years and Bolt the Younger will be making a run as well.  (I see wet behind the ears James Paterson's maiden Senate speech - which I haven't watched - included promoting an Australian embassy move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.  At last!  The really important issue that the citizens of Victoria have been waiting for their Senator to finally tackle.   They'll be dancing in the streets.)

Honest to God:  if Tim Wilson gets up in this preselection at the other end of the country from me, I'll have trouble voting for the Liberals for another decade at least.

Laughably, Bolt says of Wilson:
Tim Wilson has a long record of publicly fighting for Liberal values and has the scars to prove it.
Like the "scar" of a directly gifted Human Rights Commission job worth about $400,000 in salary and benefits?  What Bolt means is "Wilson supported me when the s.18C case was taken against me, which I could avoided by an apology and correction for mistakes, but instead decided to grandstand and lost.  Of course he's well suited to be a Liberal candidate in a safe seat, then."

Georgina Downey, on the other hand, may have had a bit of a charmed life as a daughter of a famous politician;  but I find it hard to credit that a person with this academic and work background outside of thinktank wankery is not smart and well qualified for political life:
Ms Downer is a lawyer turned diplomat who served in Australia's embassy in Japan for four years. The mother of two has a Masters in Public International Law from the London School of Economics and degrees in Law and Commerce from the University of Melbourne.  She is fluent in Japanese and French.
The Liberal Party needs to distance itself from the mystery corporate funded ideologues of the IPA, not get tied up with them closer.   If they go with Freedom Boy, it will be their loss.  

An interesting take on the Nordic system

Why Bernie Sanders Is Adopting a Nordic-Style Approach - The Atlantic

The basic message is that it's not that Nordic folk are more altruistic - it's that they see their style of socialism-lite is great for the middle class.  In other words, they support it because they are selfish.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Better than increasing, anyway

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have Now Been Flat for Two Years Running

New data published by the International Energy Agency extends the surprising finding, discovered last year, that global carbon dioxide emissions have stopped growing despite continued economic growth. The latest data show the trend has continued for a second consecutive year, which the IEA says is a result of renewable energy accounting for 90 percent of new electricity generation in 2015. China’s slowing economic growth has played a key role in these figures as well, though, and with India and several other developing economies set to grow substantially over the next several years, it’s not clear how long we can expect this “decoupling” trend to continue.

More Alzheimers related research

Re-energizing the aging brain

...new research on shows that the brain's energy reserves can be increased with a daily
dose of pyruvate, a small energy-rich molecule that sits at the hub of most of the energy pathways inside the cell. These results need to be replicated in human subjects, but could ultimately lead to clinical applications.

"In our new study, we show that long-term dietary supplementation with pyruvate increases the energy reserves in the brain, at least in mice, in the form of the molecules glycogen, creatine and lactate," says lead author Heikki Tanila, Professor of Molecular Neurobiology at the A. I. Virtanen Institute of the University of Eastern Finland.

Sounds serious

Drought and rising temperatures 'leaves 36m people across Africa facing hunger' | Environment | The Guardian

I've noted before that we don't get a lot of media attention in the West about droughts in other countries as they develop.   It seems to take shots of malnourished and starving kids from the subsequent famine before you see much publicity on TV.

I see that El Nino has not been kind to other parts of the world, too:

Months of below-average rainfall have conspired to produce the worst
drought in Vietnam in the best part of 100 years. It has been reported
that the Mekong River is at its lowest level since 1926.

The ongoing El Nino weather pattern is thought to be the main cause of the lack of rainfall affecting the country.

Vietnam is not alone in suffering drought. Neighbouring Cambodia, and
Laos, as well as Thailand and Myanmar, have been experiencing water
shortages as a result of the weather phenomenon.

Cringing for comedy

I didn't plan on watching the much publicised "Luke Warm Sex" last night; but I fell asleep near the end of The Weekly (still a good value show that Crikey seems oddly determined to dislike) and woke up 20 minutes later to find Luke McGregor about to nude up with a handful of typical modern nudists.  (By which I mean: aging with a fair share of rotund.   For whatever reason, social nudity is just not young folks' thing, now, apparently.   Nude in cyberspace, on the other hand, is near compulsory.)

I watched this last 10 or 15  minutes, and decided I can't handle McGregor, except in an acting role.

I thought he was good in Utopia, for example, where he wasn't playing himself.

But in last night's show, it was hard to avoid the feeling that he was not being himself, but acting out some intensely cringeworthy version of himself.   Or at least I think this is what was happening - I find it impossible to judge how authentic this guy is being when he is trying to pass himself off as himself.

And just as there's no dignity in comedians (usually female, these days) who want to talk about their vast sexual experience, there's also none in one wanting to talk about how little sex he's had.

Luke Buckmaster was not impressed.  Nor was I.

And speaking of Australian comedy, I never saw figures for how badly the last season of Please Like Me went.   It was shown at an odd time slot, started with very low ratings, and I would guess went downhill from there.   But apparently it got made because of American investment.  It must surely have ended its run now, though. 

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Talking about cities

For the last few years, it has seemed to me that inner city Brisbane has been a bit stuck in a developmental rut.   While there was a burst of apartment building there back about 10 to 20 years ago, it seems that much of it is really designed for the likes of visiting students and and the rich young, all of whom I would assume move away to bigger digs once they decide to have a baby.

I guess this is not unique to Brisbane - I suspect the same thing has happened in Melbourne.  Sydney, less so, because of the proximity of the older residential inner city areas to the centre.  

But in Brisbane, the result you get is an inner city area that is not quite alive after about 3pm on a weekday.

I occasionally am in the city at that time for work, and (if I have not been able to have lunch earlier), I always find it sort of depressing the way the myriad coffee and lunch outlets are shutting down by that time.   Must be good hours for the workers, I guess, but a city that feels like it is shutting down at that time doesn't feel fully lived in. 

Of course, you can still find places open if you go up to the Queen Street Mall, which is relatively attractive and busy as far as inner city pedestrian malls go, but the city as a whole just feels like it needs higher, lived in, density.

I'm not sure how you cure that, as I guess that even if you said that residential development had to be more spacious and attractive to families, the cost would still be prohibitively high, and they may figure they can get nicer outlooks at the city fringe (such as at Teneriffe - which is booming - but it is not a convenient walk to the city.)

Anyway, just my thoughts....

Update:   perhaps I am being a bit tough here.  I mean, I guess there are parts of most major inner cities (save for the megacities like Tokyo) which are only going to be populated during business hours.   And, I have to say, that South Bank, just across the bridge from the inner city, is (in my opinion) actually the most successful arts/culture/recreation precincts of the Australian cities.   Southbank and Grey Street are very popular;  the Performing Arts centre is well used and has attractive outdoor eating;  the Queensland Museum is a bit underwhelming, though.   But overall, it is very lively and inviting area any day of the week.

The problem though is the gaps between the areas - South Bank and Kangaroo Point are popular at night, but go across the river and there are several empty streets til you get to the Mall.  Same if you head down to the Valley.   I have read that high class dining, which used to be a reason to go to some of the back streets in the city at night, is pretty much dying in favour of more casual eating.   (I can understand why, too.)   So it may be just one of these things at the moment.   But yeah, I would like to see more low rise residential closer to the inner city to see if that gives it more life.

The very mixed bag that is Singapore

BBC - Capital - Why expats call this utopia

Interesting article about Singapore - low income taxes, but some pretty extraordinary duties on some items.  And it now has the title of world's most expensive city.

I take it they also think that putting enormous sculptures of a naked baby in a park might encourage their young folk have children? 

Catchy title

Climate Change and Conservative Brain Death -- NYMag

Speaking of climate (and weather):   Brisbane forecast is for 34 degrees on Saturday.

Everyone is complaining about the heat and humidity here of a long lasting summer.  Not that the upper temperatures are breaking records: just that it seems to have been muggy and relatively breeze-less for so many days (and nights) this summer.   Not much rain, but enough that the place still looks green.

Googling around, it seems that many parts of the Northern Hemisphere are exceptionally warm so far this March.  I wouldn't be surprised if the February giant leap in global temperature anomaly is beaten again in March.

Of course I have to post about this...

....the news of a fifth Indiana Jones movie, of course.

Reading the comments under The Guardian's story on this, there are (of course) many condemnations of Crystal Skull (lefty people seem, in particular, to despise it), and there are many attempts at funny, age related, titles.  But it seems to me that not many of them are very good.

Perhaps my favourite comment so far is this one:
 I'm not sure being dragged along under a mobility scooter is going to have quite the same dramatic impact.
As for me, I'll put out there (again - I think I have suggested this years ago here) my idea for a Grand Unification of Spielberg films - that it end with a very old Indiana Jones turning up as a formerly unseen astronaut entering the mothership at the end of Close Encounters.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Brain stimulation backlash, and shaking up Alzheimers

Neurostimulation: Bright sparks : Nature : Nature Publishing Group

I overlooked this interesting article at Nature about the current state of research into mild brain stimulation (of the kind that some people are doing at home with as little as a 9 V battery, apparently.)

As it explains, it seems that there is currently something of a backlash against initially promising results, but this of itself may be a swing too far in the other direction.

I'm hoping that it turns out to be useful for Alzheimers, as well as the surprisingly blunt instrument of using ultrasound to attack the plaques on brain cells that cause the problem. 

And look, with this extract from a press release I get to make a political statement against economists like Le Sloan, who routinely dismiss government investment in medical research:
Queensland scientists have found that non-invasive ultrasound
technology can be used to treat Alzheimer’s disease and restore memory.

University of Queensland researchers discovered that the innovative
drug-free approach breaks apart the neurotoxic amyloid plaques that
result in memory loss and cognitive decline.

Welcoming the findings today at UQ’s Queensland Brain Institute,
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said they could have a wide
impact for the community.

“The Government’s $9 million investment into this technology was to
drive discoveries into clinics, and today’s announcement indicates that
together with the Queensland Brain Institute, it was a worthwhile
investment,” Ms Palaszczuk said...

“We’re extremely excited by this innovation of treating Alzheimer’s without using drug therapeutics,” Professor Götz said.

“The ultrasound waves oscillate tremendously quickly, activating
microglial cells that digest and remove the amyloid plaques that destroy
brain synapses.

“The word ‘breakthrough’ is often mis-used, but in this case I think
this really does fundamentally change our understanding of how to treat
this disease, and I foresee a great future for this approach.”

Monday, March 14, 2016

Wilful blindness

Steve Kates, one of the "brains trust" at Catallaxy (excuse me while I snigger), wrote just today:
For me, belief in global warming is as clear a sign of anti-capitalist ideologically-driven wishful thinking as I would care to choose. It may be a reality, but it is one for which the evidence is virtually non-existent....
which is good for either a laugh, or some serious head shaking, depending on one's mood, given the wide publicity this graph is getting today:

 Of course the monthly peak will drop again within the year, but it's a mighty impressive peak, and the trend of that red line is in danger of growing steeper.
 

Clearly, an inadequate system

Germanwings crash: victims' relatives say Lufthansa should have stopped pilot flying | World news | The Guardian

I wonder what the situation is in Australia, and other countries, regarding notification doctors can give to an employer of a employee's psychiatric state.

While not every employer needs to be kept in the loop, surely for those employees who work in an industry with the safety of others in their hands should expect that their employer should know of their doctor's concerns that they have psychosis. 

Sunday, March 13, 2016

A weird place

Now, I don't care for snakes as much as the next city bred wimpy male who gets enough of a fright when seeing a blue tongue lizard head poking out from the undergrowth, but reading about this public festival of snake killing and skinning in Texas still made me feel queasy.    Are enthusiastic public tours of abattoirs a "thing" in Texas, too?

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Bar


Had a beer here this afternoon.  it's The Charming Squire, the James Squire pub in a corner of the Brisbane Convention Centre, opposite South Bank, and it's ridiculously, incredibly, popular.


 The James Squire range of beers is reliably good: it's the craft beer-ish style beer you have when you aren't really in a craft beer pub.  I've been to this pub a few times, and I would love to see how much money they bank each day. 

The company could surely not be more pleased with how it's going.





Oh look...the entrance to the Prime Minister's office while Tony Abbott had the job....







Friday, March 11, 2016

The confusion continues

Feminists should speak up about Credlin, and the creeps should close their mouths

Seems to me that Jacqueline Maley writes a column that makes sense until half way through, then goes off the rails.

She claims:
Call it a failure of the imagination, but it still seems we can only understand a woman's power over a man in terms of sex.
Oh, bulldust.   I'm sure Margaret Thatcher had a powerful sway over her (mostly male?) cabinet during most of her Prime Ministership, and no one thought she was sleeping with them.  

And this:
The former prime minister, so beholden to his Amazonian chief of staff,
the Wallis Simpson over whom he lost his reason, is somehow exculpated
from the enormously bad decision-making which characterised his tenure.
Double bulldust!  I reckon this is just feminist reading between the lines to work up something to be offended about.  It seems to me that in everything she says, Savva argues that it was Abbott's fault for not remedying the poisonous situation that everyone (from John Howard down) was bringing to his attention. 

The best looking McDonalds in the world, I'm guessing

McDonald’s on Paris’ Champs-Elysees gets an upscale makeover.

Look at the photos.  It's ridiculously gorgeous.

(I had a particularly nice "Create Your Own" last Saturday, too.  The only thing wrong with the stores now is the annoying way the menu screen cycles every 8 seconds before you've had a chance to read everything.)

Um, maybe she was just a terrible Chief of Staff?

It's pretty hilarious, really.

Andrew Bolt cannot understand why Liberal women are not rushing to defend Peta Credlin  as an unfairly "smeared" sister worthy of support.

Why does he refuse to believe what this plainly suggests:  that Credlin was a terrible Chief of Staff who everyone (bar Abbott) could see was causing massive harm,  and that it's not about sexism at all.

And having said that, of course Abbott can take prime responsibility for the situation, as he is clearly incapable of making good judgements about who to listen to.

[Bolt also runs with approval a patently silly piece from The Age in which it is noted that Tony Blair had the sort of relationship with his (male) chief of staff such that they would discuss things while Blair was in various states of undress, including nude apparently.   So, hey, why should Liberal MP's look askance at famous "man's man" Abbott slapping his COS on the backside, or watching her put her head on his shoulder?   If he had her in the bathroom while he was having a shower, nothing wrong with that because guys are sometimes nude in front of guys and what's the difference?    Really, Andrew, you're a dill being sucked in by feminist false equivalence.]

Blood pressure alert

Every time I see Simon Chapman's head appearing on an anti smoking article (today, at The Conversation), I imagine an unhealthy rise in the blood pressure of Sinclair Davidson, and a mad rush to find something in it to nitpick about in a post that no one will care about at Catallaxy. 

It amuses me, somewhat.

The complicated radiation story

Is Fukushima's exclusion zone doing more harm than radiation? - BBC News

At the end of this article, which has one expert questioning why the Japanese government is setting such a relatively low level of background radiation as being needed before residents can return to land around Fukushima, there is this caution:
Of course this is a ferociously complex issue, and many will argue that I
am ignoring the dangers of "hot spots" and from ingesting radioactive
Caesium particles in food or water or dust. But five years after the
meltdowns at Fukushima 100,000 people are still unable to go home. That
is a massive human tragedy.
Yes, it seems to me (without knowing anything concrete about this) that the matter of how a background radiation level is being maintained is important.  If you live in an area where the rocks and minerals around you are naturally radiative, but are in a more or less solid state, wouldn't that be better than being in an area with a lower background reading that's come from dust that descended from the sky?   Because I would have guessed that getting that dust into your lungs is likely to do worse damage than standing near (say) a block of granite that has a naturally high reading.

But how do scientists take this difference (assuming I'm making a legitimate point) into account when declaring an area safe or not for long term residence?   Surely it's hard to measure the likelihood of dust ingestion?


Textor makes some enemies

Liberal strategist Mark Textor seems to have no love for the IPA, so he goes up a notch in credibility:
Wide-ranging changes introduced by Tony Abbott, such as the potential deregulation of universities, were the result of a broken political system where considered and experienced policy wonks were overlooked, Textor argued.

“During the time of great estrangement during the Abbott years, the reality is people who are close to the machine like myself thought that many of the reforms ... we were getting were completely out of step,” he said. “Don’t assume the government’s agenda and the political agenda are the same because governments aren’t political parties and their agendas are quite different.”

Instead, “21-year-old pimply theorists from the IPA [Institute of Public Affairs] and the Australia Institute” with little real-world experience have been running the show, Textor said.
I'm guessing he must be grinding his teeth about James Paterson's grab of the top Victorian Senate seat then.

Satellite or surface temperatures

A really clear video here explaining why the surface temperature record is way more robust than the satellite record.   Information totally lost on the highly dislikeable Ted Cruz, of course.


Thursday, March 10, 2016

Sounds promising

10 Cloverfield Lane Reviews - Metacritic

The story sounds a bit Twilight Zone-ish, and I think I want to see it.  (I've always liked John Goodman, too, so it's nice to see him being a lead actor with a lot of screen time.)

Runs in the family

Second Wachowski Sibling Comes Out as Transgender Woman - The New York Times

OK, surely we must be at Peak Transgender?

No, wait on...

When Donald Trump becomes President, and then uses an Address to the Nation to declare he cannot hide the truth behind his unmanly tiny hands any more, and he will forthwith be known as "Ms President Donna Trump" - then we will have reached the peak.

Noooooooooooooooooo!

By rights, I should refuse to publicise this study.  On the other hand, out of respect and love for the work of Steven Spielberg, I have been thinking of having an "ET on a flying bike" tattoo, positioned so that my butt can look like the moon it's flying over:*
There's no known cure for the common cold, but receiving multiple tattoos can strengthen your immunological responses, potentially making you heartier in fighting off common infections, according to research by a trio of University of Alabama scholars. 
*  I may not be being serious.

Weird blindness of the Right

What fun it is to watch the outrage of frustrated Abbott lovers (and Turnbull haters - he believes in global warming, after all) over the Niki Savva book.   (Which, it would seem, has been selling like hotcakes.  I'm even tempted myself.)

Rowan Dean, about the most obnoxious of right wing warrior commentators in Australia at the moment, is quoted by Bolt as writing:
Moreover, in interviews Ms Savva has repeatedly trotted out the claim that Ms Credlin attempted to have herself and Peter van Onselen fired from the Australian (an irrelevance given they are both still there), as an excuse for not following the normal procedure of putting allegations of an affair to her two subjects prior to publication.
Um, it's more than "a claim":  in the Australian this morning she has the communication from then editor Mitchell confirming that not only had Credlin demanded it, but Abbott was on the case too!

And, quite frankly, your average person might think it is a pretty damn good reason for a writer not to bother asking them about an affair, especially when the claim in the book is not even that there were having one, but that a large slab of their own party thought it looked that way and that it was causing problems within the government.  (And Abbott's - and I think Credlin's? -  denials to the messenger is in the book too.)    Working up indignation about her not asking them is therefore just piffle.

As for the hypocrisy of all of this - a word Bolt is flinging around with his lack of insight - I thought Righties considered it an outrage when Gillard did her nut at The Australian for running a Milne piece which contained a claim that had previously been nixed by their lawyers as defamatory.   We don't know if she asked for his sacking, but he got sacked, and then this was supposed to be the biggest outrage to freedom of speech ever.

Now, clear evidence that Credlin (and possibly Abbott) was specifically telling Mitchell to sack Savva for her reporting unfriendly stories, and we're supposed to feel sorry for Peta??

Gillard, as her reward for being uppity about a report she didn't like, got a plethora of Right wing purely politically motivated witch hunting lasting years over allegations involving her love life  20 years ago, which had already been aired and denied about (I think) 12 years ago, and which Bolt chose to help re-publicise.   The end result was always predictable - if none of her internal enemies had evidence 12 years ago, they were hardly likely to turn it up now.  And the relevance of this to how she was doing her job now - precisely nil.   (The relevance of the Abbott/Credlin relationship - huge within his own party, right now.)  The only good thing to come out of it was the utter humiliation of Michael Smith.

The right wing pundits are absurd.   (Oh, and to be fair, so is Bernard Keane on this.  He's way off mark on this.)

Filming has started

Star Wars redux: Send in the Clones . . . to Donegal

It would appear that the filming for the next Star Wars has started on the island where the last one ended.

How unusually chronological of them, for movie makers...

Heh

US pro-gun activist mother shot - by her four-year-old son

She's not dead, so it's OK to laugh.

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Good Lord! Another columnist I wouldn't normally recommend...

...is Miranda Devine, but her take on the matter of Credlin/Abbott/various Lefty, feminist commentators' complaint that this is a matter of sexist attack is actually pretty good.   Also a bit funny (unintentionally, I think) in part:
She has denied the rumours and that should be the end of speculation based on evidence amounting to no more than Credlin feeding Abbott off her fork, buying them matching Tumi luggage, holidaying together, and various other tidbits, mainly unsourced, which have swirled around Canberra for years.
Yes, because a male boss and his female chief of staff holidaying together with matching luggage is never a reason to suspect something going on...

Anyhow, the bits I more-or-less approve of:
Savva’s book documents the avoidable trajectory of his downfall, with on-the-record recollections which fill in details about Credlin’s questionable behaviour and dominance of Abbott.
Despite the damage she was doing, Credlin remained in her job. Her response to criticism was to play the gender card. Abbott’s indulgence of this nonsense was surreal as he castigated his colleagues as sexist. “Do you really think that my chief of staff would be under this criticism if her name was P-e-t-e-r and not P-e-t-a?” he asked the ABC in 2014.
The week after Abbott was dumped, Credlin spoke at an Australian Women’s Weekly event and also blamed criticism of her on sexism. She also made the extraordinarily self-aggrandising claim that she “got them into government, from opposition I might add.”
Credlin’s harshest critics were women, not because they are self loathing misogynists, but because men are cowed into silence by exactly the arguments she mounts. Criticise a woman and it’s sexism. Criticise a man and it’s criticism.
Credlin continued to play the gender card yesterday in a column, saying she wasn’t the first woman to be attacked about the “nature of her professional relationships, and sadly I doubt I will be the last”. Abbott’s not the first man either, so it’s hardly a gender issue.

What a farce

Turnbull heckled by own party as NSW Liberals vote for climate debates - 9news.com.au: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has reportedly been heckled by parts of his party at a meeting where NSW Liberals voted for his government to conduct public debates about climate change and whether the science is settled.

An overwhelming majority voted in favour of the motion at the party's state council meeting on the NSW central coast following a speech by Mr Turnbull at the weekend, revealing the persisting level of climate change scepticism among the party, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.
I am reminded of John Quiggin's "Parallel Universes" post of yesterday, too.

I think the right side of politics here is caught in the sort of credibility crisis that Labor suffered in the 50's and 60's, when (if I understand history correctly), it was hard to support a party that harboured too many with an intellectual sympathy to communism.

The climate change skeptics have to be purged before the Coalition can regain true credibility for political judgement.   As many of them are IPA influenced, and the nearest party to that mob is the LDP, they should be told to go join Leyonhjelm's outfit and follow him into electoral oblivion.

A Trump comparison

Boy, it's been many a year since I've recommended a Bret Stephens piece from the Wall Street Journal, but I think he makes many good points in this anti-Trump piece "The Return of the 1930s", which starts this way:
In temperament, he was “bombastic, inconsistent, shallow and vainglorious.” On political questions, “he made up his own reality as he went along.” Physically, the qualities that stood out were “the scowling forehead, the rolling eyes, the pouting mouth.” His “compulsive exhibitionism was part of his cult of machismo.” He spoke “in short, strident sentences.” Journalists mocked his “absurd attitudinizing.”
Remind you of someone?
The description of Benito Mussolini comes from English historian Piers Brendon’s definitive history of the 1930s, “The Dark Valley.” So does this mean that Donald Trump is the second coming of Il Duce, or that yesteryear’s Fascists are today’s Trumpkins? Not exactly. But that doesn’t mean we should be indifferent to the parallels with the last dark age of Western politics.
Stephens then goes to note how the current period of economic problems do not go anywhere near matching those of the 1920's and 30's.  In fact, he goes on to point to the positives in the American economy, as a way of deflating the Trump fanbase's feelings that the country needs a new, quasi-fascist,  style of leaderhsip.

But - and here's the big but - why doesn't Stephens then go onto to acknowledge that the Republican's own hyperbola about the economic crisis Obama was allegedly causing was not well founded, and it is their own behaviour that has caused the rise of the Trump base?

Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Typical Razer

Razer on Peta Credlin, Niki Savva and primordial female horror | Daily Review: film, stage and music reviews, interviews and more

This somewhat hyperbolic review of merely the extracts of Niki Savva's book displays all the qualities that I dislike in Helen Razor's writing style.   She's not even entertainingly bad, though:  she's just a self indulgent bore  whose clumsy sentences and allusions have to be re-read a couple of times to even try to follow her argument.   (Only to find it wasn't worth the effort.)

Does sound unusual for March

Mildura set to swelter - so supplier cuts power for scheduled maintenance work: Almost 200 households in Mildura will be without power on Tuesday thanks to scheduled maintenance work, despite temperatures forecast to hit 40 degrees for the eighth day in a row.

Age expired

I see that John Stone still writes trying to influence Australian politicians to cut, cut, cut:
That "fiscal path" comprised four components. First, "all ministers should now be put on notice that there will be no room for new spending proposals, no matter how 'worthy'". Second, existing spending needed to be cut hard. "The problem is not the absence of targets for cutting, but the government's faint-heartedness in approaching that task". Third, any and all tax increases should be firmly ruled out. Finally, as one carrot among these sticks, the government should legislate for a 5 (or preferably 10) percentage point cut in corporate taxation, introduced in five equal yearly stages beginning in 2015-16.

He seems to have been old forever, and indeed, I see that he is now 87.  Sorry, according to my rule of thumb, that is past the age where anyone is worth listening to.  (I'm really going to regret this age-ist approach when I'm 87 and still blogging - but by then I'll have had therapies that will mean 87 will be the new 67.  I hope...)

Anyhow, to stop being offensive about our elders, I suspect a 5% company tax reduction phased in over 5 years is probably OK.    But apart from that - the insistence that there is to be no new tax increases of any kind - that's just ideology put above good management. 

I wonder what he would have to say - if he was worth listening to - about the abject failure of the Laffer-isation of Kansas's finances.  That's working a treat.

Hedonism in the news, again

The poppers ban: will it criminalise gay users? | Society | The Guardian

I maintain my conservative line:  the self indulgent hedonism of artificial stimulation to increase the sensation of sex is not good for the individual or society overall.  

Dealer needed

Can very small doses of LSD make you a better worker? I decided to try it. - Vox

I see from the article, written by a man with a lot of previous drug experience, that all I need to beat an internet addiction is to "microdose" with LSD.  Huh.

Mind you, the article is probably best read to learn about some of the over the top pro-drug claims that are still made by later day versions of Thomas Leary.

The future of agriculture and climate change

Here are two stories that show how it's really hard to be confident as to what will happen to agriculture and climate change:

1.   A study looking at South America gives some concern:
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, focused on the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, an emerging global breadbasket that as of 2013 supplied 10 percent of the world's soybeans. The researchers used variations in temperature and precipitation across the state over an eight-year period to estimate the sensitivity of the region's agricultural production to . Those historical comparisons can help in making predictions about the sensitivity of agriculture to future climate change.

The study found that, if the patterns from 2002 to 2008 hold in the future, an increase in average temperature in Mato Grosso of just 1 degree Celsius will lead to a nine to 13 percent reduction in overall production of soy and corn. "This is worrisome given that the temperature in the study region is predicted to rise by as much as 2 degrees by midcentury under the range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios," said Avery Cohn, assistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, who led the work while he was a visiting researcher at Brown.
2.  An Australian study, on the other hand, notes some possible compensating effects:
Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves

PS:  don't tell the numbskulls at The Australian about that second one....

Transgender caution

Obviously, the politically correct name for sex change surgery is now "gender affirming surgery"

Still, the article at that link is worth reading to see that a guy/woman who has had it noting that it is not the cure all that some hope for.

Just what the Liberals don't need

I've been meaning to comment on the Liberals selecting the IPA's James Paterson for its top Victorian
Senate seat. 

For a party that likes to rubbish career politicians with no "real life" work experience outside of politics on the Labor side (Young Labor, university student politics, brief stint at Union or political staffer, politician), how on Earth do they justify the exact equivalent on their side as being a good idea?  (See this short article about him at The Australian.*)

What's more, haven't they learnt from recent experience that the drier than dry right wing economic views that come from the IPA aren't actually that popular in the electorate?  

I don't really recall seeing Paterson on TV all that often, but I have the feeling what times I did see him I found him rather dull and overly earnest.   Chris Berg by far is the most personable of the IPA kiddy crew, but as I have said before, you can't really trust the ethics of anyone who is willing to be paid by a mob out to deceive the public on climate change and supporting the tobacco industry to make more money. 

*  I see that he is married already, too.  As is Berg.  Why do the heterosexuals who work for the IPA seem so keen on youthful marriage?   Not that there's anything wrong with that!  Just a bit odd...

Flood infrastructure beware

Global warming already driving increases in rainfall extremes : Nature News & Comment

Interesting study reported here.

I see that The Australian remains committed to climate change scoffing by claiming this paper shows a climate modelling fail in the headline:  "Deserts in a for a drenching as theories of climate change again", which is a ridiculous way to spin the study.   (And, as is often the case in the Australian, the body of the report tends to undermine the way it is headlined.)   

Peta speaks!

Well, that's funny.  All of The Australian's stories on the weekend about Niki Savva's book were able to be read via the old "Google around the paywall" trick, but none of the Peta Credlin response stories today were accessible that way.  (To me, anyway.)

But, it would appear that she (though not Abbott) has in an interview denied emphatically an affair with Abbott.


But, to be forensic about it, only her answer appears*, not the question, and she does use the line:
The idea that my relationship with the prime ­minister was anything other than professional is completely false
which leaves open the possibility that her comment is limited to the time he was PM.

Thus I'm not giving up on my theory - that there is something further back that has prevented them from outright complaining about the affair rumour and innuendo (or threatening defamation) until now.   (Though, granted, the way Savva has dealt with it does not leave open a defamation action against her.)

*  I actually brought a hard copy of the Australian to confirm - sorry to have spent money on Rupert.

Update:  and, by the way, I am aware of another rumour involving Abbott that does not involve Credlin.    Mind you, nearly all politicians are subject to such rumour, but with Abbott's behaviour and famously "blokey" demeanour I make special dispensation for him for believing there is fire behind the smoke.

Update 2Michelle Grattan's take on the whole matter is really quite harsh (on Abbott/Credlin), but fair.

Update 3:  Credlin's actual opinion piece in The Australian today (which doesn't contain the express denial) is really awful - it actually is so close in parts to what Abbott said yesterday that you have to wonder whether she wrote his response for him!

Monday, March 07, 2016

Clive for Donald

Why I’d Vote For Donald Trump

While it's not exactly an endorsement, it's still surprising to read Clive Hamilton saying that he'd vote for Trump (over Cruz, at least.)

Yet more Tony and Peta ...

A couple of other bits of intrigue about this:

*  why did The Australian, normally so pro-Coalition, run with this?  Well, I think the answer is pretty clear - Rupert met with them, later decided she was a liability.  It's with his approval that Savva was protected in her long campaign to publicise the trouble within the government that Credlin was causing.

*  one incident mentioned from the book has Credlin sounding like an uptight feminist:
In government Abbott held a meeting of cabinet ministers in his office and one of them told an off-colour joke about submarines. “Credlin stood up and stormed out of the room. A distressed Abbott took off after her. She walked back in a few minutes later, with Abbott following closely behind her. The prime minister addressed his bemused colleagues, saying: ‘I think we owe Peta an apology.’ He turned to the towering inferno beside him. ‘Sorry, Peta,’ he said. A couple of them, including Joe Hockey, chimed in: ‘Sorry, Peta.’ Credlin then launched into an angry lecture, telling them they were the reason the government was doing so badly among women.”
Yes, but - if she is that sensitive to sexism, how on earth did she put up with her boss's condescending treatment of Gillard?   Really, how can anyone sympathise with Credlin (even from a feminist perspective - like Jane Caro seems to be doing) given her supportive role with Abbott during that?  

Sunday, March 06, 2016

An underwhelming set of reviews

*  From a couple of weeks back:  the last episode of the X Files reboot.  Terrible, just terrible.  The only possible explanation seems to be the suggestion I have read elsewhere:  that a studio forced reduction from an 8 part return to 6 episodes resulted in the compression of the crucial framing story to the point of nonsense.  Really, seriously, this needs to be the end of the show.

Kung Fu Hustle:  I mentioned last week how this was my first movie hire on Google Play, inspired as I was by Journey to the West to see more work by Cantonese writer/director/actor Stephen Chow.  Well, this earlier effort is not, in my books, anywhere near as good as Journey.  But it is interesting to note his humour style and imagination at play.  And most importantly:  the Google Play system worked well as a standard definition download watched on a big screen via a Chromecast.   The file download was just under 500 MB for a 90 minute movie, if I recall correctly, but the picture quality was fine enough.   Not sure I would bother with a HD download until I get a better TV.

Hail, Caesar:   the latest Coen brothers movie was interesting but, alas, a bit underwhelming.   The bits with George Clooney were all fine,  and the most memorable. But his story doesn't take up all that much screen time.  In many respects the movie was of unclear intent - some parts were suggesting an ironic take on big studio Hollywood, but they weren't quite playing that way.   Overall, it was a case of "not zany enough" compared to many of their earlier comedies.  As much as I like some of their earlier work, I still wonder if now critics see quality in their handicraft which isn't really there.  Their screenwriting help on Bridge of Spies, for example:  I didn't think the Coen-ish aspects of the final screenplay were particularly great.   Still, may they keep on working and (hopefully) one day reach a new comedy peak.

The Tony and Peta show

What's with all this kerfuffle about the matter of whether even Liberals thought Abbott and Credlin were having an affair?   The media is all over it due to Niki Savva's book, but as I noted in December, Peter Hartcher writing at Fairfax (perhaps using info from Savva) had written:
Some Liberals and even people from outside the party confronted Abbott before the February spill over the affair he was supposed to have been having with Credlin, the least original rumour in Australian politics. They were worried less about the reality than the perception.
So the news is actually at least 3 months old.  (And Hartcher might be a bit miffed about why it is that Savva can attract all the attention on this story, but it looks like no one reads his columns carefully!)

As I also wrote in December, it was clear that even News Ltd papers at the end of last year were making  innuendo about  their relationship.  Here's what I wrote:
...this seems to have attracted little attention from the rest of the media today.   (I find that odd.   But I find it even odder that both News Ltd and Fairfax outlets have taken to innuendo about Abbott and Credlin - going skiing together, staying in France together, Tony sleeping on her couch instead of spending his allowance on an actual hotel room - and neither of them, nor their spouses, come out to complain about it.  If I were the subject of such innuendo, and if I had not slept with my staffer, I think I could at least muster a press release of denial and then say I was not going to dignify it by addressing it again.  But just remaining silent despite the increasing openness of the innuendo?   Strange...)
Now, since I wrote that, we have had Abbott being accompanied by his wife on overseas trips, which is pretty strong evidence that if anything was ever on, it had probably long since finished.

But amongst (non Right wing) journalists, the only one who I have noticed who outright doesn't believe the rumour is Bernard Keane, who tweeted that it was "a lie".   I'd love to know why he thinks he can be so emphatic about that, given that the line every other journalist of credibility takes seems to me "I dunno, but it's a rumour that's been around a long, long time."

I note that the denials by Abbott and Credlin this weekend have been more along the lines of "we refuse to dignify this rumour with comment" rather than the more outright denial of "this is outrageous and hurtful to my family.  There has never been any affair."

So this is a great and (almost) entertaining mystery.

Let's list the "pro affair" evidence:

*  rumour of long standing amongst journalists and ALP members;  but also believed by many Coalition parliamentarians as the only explanation for his devotion to her keeping her job, and of their strange physical closeness in public;
*  lack of early and emphatic denial when clear innuendo appeared in press last year - even in Abbott friendly News Ltd papers;
*  lack of threat of defamation;

* the example of history regarding politicians and denials of affairs with staffers;
* some public address I saw some time ago where Abbott was joking about believing he had broken all of the 10 commandments, save for the one about murder (people who joke like that are usually sending a message that they hope humour will mask)
* for God's sake, just look at every photo of them taken together for the last 5 years!   They just look exceptionally close, and she has been by his side seemingly every minute when in public.

On the "no affair" side:

*  Credlin talking once about how Abbott knew about and helped her with attempts to fall pregnant by keeping her fertility stuff in the fridge in his office.  Would be remarkably unlikely that anything would be going on between them at that time;
*  despite many anti Abbott rumours about his marriage being shaky, no clear evidence I have ever seen that Marg was ever planning on leaving him;
*  Marg still travelling with him now;
*  his children not disowning him, either.

Using my powers of Holmes like deduction, I think that by far the most likely explanation is that there was some sexual indiscretion between them at some point in time,  one that "leaked" to some in Canberra, but that this was some years ago and (perhaps) was a very short term thing.    This would explain quite a few things:   the profile of Credlin some years ago (in the Australian?, the one where she talked about her fertility problems) which read as a pre-emptive strike about rumours of an affair;  the unwillingness of either of them to talk defamation or to deny in detail any affair;  the possible "giving the benefit of the doubt" of his wife and kids.

I am curious to see if I am ever vindicated in this theory.  

And as to why this matters:   politician's affairs generally don't, but if Abbot and Credlin had a "thing" going when he was trouncing around Australia on the election campaign as a family man with his daughters in tow,  his hypocrisy would be a thing to behold.  Especially given the appallingly sexist treatment Julia Gillard received on matters of her private life at the hands of Abbott and his supporters.  And besides, it is hard to remember any other PM who has taken on such a high profile staffer who can directly share blame for loss of internal support for her boss.   It's nothing like the interest in Jim Cairn's relationship with Junie Morosie, which really was just the conservative salaciousness of the day, as far as I know...

Update:  the more I read the way Credlin and Abbott have responded with variations on a "I won't dignify this with a response" theme, the more I think I am right.

Friday, March 04, 2016

Friday history - English airship edition

There seems to have been a gap in my knowledge about European airship history.

Everyone knows about the Hindenburg crash, but I did not recall that the English tried building their own passenger airships, the R100 and R101, one of which met a similar fate.

This was brought to my attention by a great series of photos at a Retronaut post from November last year of the interior of the R100.  Here are some examples:





The first trip did not go so smoothly:
After a series of tests, the R-100 embarked on her first great voyage. Originally planned for India, the destination was changed to Canada over concerns about the engines’ performance in tropical heat. The R-100 departed from England on July 29, 1930, arriving at Quebec Airport 78 hours later. It flew some short flights in the area and returned to the UK on Aug. 16.
There were a few minor hitches on the journey. A storm caused the outer membrane to rupture, which had to be repaired in-flight and replaced in Montreal. The galley’s electric oven also broke down due to water damage on the way back.
 And then, the R101 met the same fate as the Hindenburg:
Meanwhile, on Oct. 4, 1930, the R-101 set off for a voyage to India. It crashed in France due to bad weather, killing 48 of the 54 passengers and crew, including several major figures of British aviation. 
The Wikipedia article on the R101 gives a lot of detail.

Is it just me, or is this (other) nail in the coffin of hydrogen lofted airships not very well known?

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Well, there's always the Ukraine...


Anti love drugs

How far should medicine go to cure taboo loves and desires

A somewhat interesting discussion here of a complicated topic.

Update:  actually, I am somewhat more interested in what potential there is for drug treatment for those who think they are transgender.   I see there is some guy who enthusiastically runs a site listing many studies indicating that transgender operations are frequently not the source of happiness that the patient desires.  There is also a counter post from someone at Huffington Post claiming this is all rubbish.   Links to both can be found via here.

As we seem to have reached some sort of "peak transgender" in American (and therefore Western) culture, I think it is a genuinely interesting topic to see how much of it is tied up with identity politics, a current cultural understanding of "self", and perhaps even a medical industry's self interest.  

But it's a weird topic.  I haven't yet watched the 4 Corners show that dealt with transgender children in a way that some seem to have found very convincing.  And from little I have read about it, there are some cases where the psychological conviction seems innate and (in a young child) not associated with any other mental issue.  I guess I have more skepticism about the late life transgender case.  Married, a bunch of kids, still likes their wife, then can only find fulfilment as a woman?   They are the cases where I would wonder what certain drugs may achieve in terms of a change of mind.

In praise of Tony Robinson

I've mentioned him at least once before, but he deserves another burst of praise.  Tony Robinson, perhaps still best known as Baldrick.  This guy, in case you still can't remember:



A series of his Walking Through History is on SBS again, and recently they ran his three part "Wild West" show.  (Did I mention it before?)  All great to watch, as was his WW1 series a year or two back.

The simple message is - he just makes terrific and engaging shows on history.  If you see any history show hosted by him, you should watch it.

The strange future is here

The U.S. Military Now Offers Egg Freezing for Female Soldiers - The Atlantic

From the link:
While egg freezing is not yet commonplace, an estimated 76,000 women will electively freeze their eggs by 2018, according to EggBanxx, a fertility marketing company. The procedure was considered “experimental” and came with a cautionary warning until 2012, but it would be a few more years before it took its first big step towards the cultural mainstream—in October 2014, Facebook and Apple announced they would begin offering female employees a health benefit worth up to $20,000 to freeze their eggs, and several other private-sector companies have since followed suit.

El Nino to finally bring flooding rain to California? (And drought in Syria)

El Nino’s Long-Awaited Grand Performance Is On Its Way to California
 | Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Could be very wet in California in the next couple of weeks.

In other climate related news, a study suggest the Syrian drought (which may have contributed somewhat to the current disastrous war) is the worst one for 900 years, and could indicate more to come:

War has been the direct driver of the refugee flux and behind that is  a complex mix of social and political factors both inside and outside the region. One fiercely studied and debated driver has been a recent dip into a series of severe droughts starting in the late 1990s.


Previous work has prescribed some of the drought — and its impact on the socioeconomic fabric in the Middle East — to climate change. New findings published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres put it in even starker context, showing that the drought is likely the worst to affect the region in 900 years. The Mediterranean as a whole has been subject to widespread drought at various points in the past 20 years. Climate models project that the region is likely to get drier in the future, which Ben Cook, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said drove the new line of inquiry.
“These recent drought events have motivated a lot of concern that this could be an indication of climate change, with the eastern Mediterranean and Syrian droughts being the most obvious,” Cook said....The projections for the region show a continued drying trend throughout
the coming century as climate change contributes to a shift in circulation patterns. That means what’s happening there now could just be the start of more prolonged, more severe drought. In a region already wracked by water scarcity and conflict, more drying could ratchet up
tension even further.
I take it that the economists' models for future effect of climate change on global GDP have trouble factoring that one in?

Some explanation of how America's odd system works

Primary voters don't really look like America | Guide to the presidential primaries


For starters, it's a small group. Just 20 percent of American adults vote in presidential primaries. They tend to be older, whiter, and better-educated than your average general election voter.

Primary voters also tend to be highly partisan, which helps explain why ideas at the fringes of each party (free college for all, a giant wall along the Mexican-US border) gain traction
during the primaries.

Primaries in the US are also sequential; rather than everyone voting on the same day, some states have their primaries early in the year, some later (for more on why, check out our previous videos).

Unless you live in a state with an early primary, there's a good chance your party will already have a nominee by the time you get to vote, meaning your vote is basically meaningless.

New(ish) physics papers

Noted recently on arXiv, a paper with the attractive title:   Black Holes and the Multiverse.  The abstract:
Vacuum bubbles may nucleate and expand during the inflationary epoch in the early universe. After inflation ends, the bubbles quickly dissipate their kinetic energy; they come to rest with respect to the Hubble flow and eventually form black holes. The fate of the bubble itself depends on the resulting black hole mass. If the mass is smaller than a certain critical value, the bubble collapses to a singularity. Otherwise, the bubble interior inflates, forming a baby universe, which is connected to the exterior FRW region by a wormhole. A similar black hole formation mechanism operates for spherical domain walls nucleating during inflation. As an illustrative example, we studied the black hole mass spectrum in the domain wall scenario, assuming that domain walls interact with matter only gravitationally. Our results indicate that, depending on the model parameters, black holes produced in this scenario can have significant astrophysical effects and can even serve as dark matter or as seeds for supermassive black holes. The mechanism of black hole formation described in this paper is very generic and has important implications for the global structure of the universe. Baby universes inside super-critical black holes inflate eternally and nucleate bubbles of all vacua allowed by the underlying particle physics. The resulting multiverse has a very non-trivial spacetime structure, with a multitude of eternally inflating regions connected by wormholes. If a black hole population with the predicted mass spectrum is discovered, it could be regarded as evidence for inflation and for the existence of a multiverse.
I'm still a bit unclear whether this is relevant to the black hole and information issue.  This gets a mention at the end of the paper, but I don't understand their point.

Another paper of recent interest has John D Barrow, who's been around for a while, as a co-author.  It's Turning on Gravity with the Higgs mechanism.   OK, it's not as if I understand it, but I thought it noteworthy because the authors seem excited that its a genuinely new idea that may help a lot with quantum gravity, and working out the fate of the universe.

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Still too radioactive to eat

Norway's Radioactive Reindeer - The Atlantic

Didn't realise that radioactivity from Chernobyl was still causing problems in northern Europe, 30 years later...

Madhouse driven madder

Always full of mad, and frequently offensive, right wing vitriol*, I see that the participants* of Catallaxy** are being driven especially berserk over the clearly poor impression George Pell is leaving in his evidence to the Royal Commission into child abuse.  Not only that, but Andrew Bolt's surprisingly harsh assessment is causing further outrage.  (Don't worry, Bolt will probably recant - he's too much of a cultural warrior to not come back to support for Pell.)

Mind you, I'm still not particularly interested in the matter.  I remain distinctly uncomfortable with the publicity the survivor group is getting.   As truly shocking and terrible (parts of) the Catholic Church have been in this matter, I still cannot get over the feeling that some victims are unhealthfully not moving on, ever; and intense media attention promotes that.

To be fair to some indirect victims, however, such as those with suicide in their family very likely attributable to abuse, it is hard to see how you would ever stop thinking about it.


* average physical age is now up to 70, by my estimate; but mental age:  a cranky 86. 

**  Other recent Catallaxy highlights:  people there cancelling their subscription to The Australian because it's become too left wing [hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha];  the endorsement of Trump by "I'm right and the rest of the world is wrong" economist Kates;  the continuing eccentric obsession with tobacco plain packaging by Prof Davidson; and of course (I'm contractually obliged to mention this at least every 6 months) the continuing failure of the latter's stagflation warning of 2011 - stagflation being the natural consequence of following Keynesian policy, of course.   Now that the global temperature alleged "pause" is well and truly over, I wonder when he'll start talking about policy responses to climate change, too.

Update:  and the predicted Bolt-ian retreat is in.

Yay for a broken record

Of course, if you've been following matters closely, you will know that there is excellent reason to be suspicious of the satellite temperature record, given the complexity of that method of measuring temperatures high in the atmosphere.  

Nonetheless, the psychological effect of having the climate change denier's (now former) favourite graph with a broken record should be fairly big.   At least, if the deniers weren't ideologically devoted to not believing science on this issue:

 

Blame the Tahitians

Last week, I was reading about the effect of Tahiti on the European sexual imagination, and Joseph Banks and his tattoo did get a mention in passing.  Well, it seems from another book (Maritime History and Identity:  The Sea and Culture in the Modern World) that we can blame the current scourge of Western civilisation (tattoos, of course) on the same period in history:



I should add though:  I don't really have an issue with an actual islander person (especially a male) having an authentic islander design on their body, if it is a genuine reflection of connection to a culture that is many centuries old.  (I draw the line at face tattoos, though.)   My biggest problem is, of course, with the garish Western rubbish of skulls, flags, dogs, girlfriend/boyfriends names, slogans, unicorns, fairies and flowers that comprises modern tattooing.

Bringing light to Africa

What difference will Obama's plan to bring power to Africa make? - BBC News

Interesting article here on an American move (with bipartisan support, oddly enough) to bring renewable energy to Sub Saharan Africa to people who currently have no electricity at all.

I particularly like that it notes the infrastructure issues which make your simplistic, "they just have to get some coal power plants built" argument unrealistic.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Malcolm's burden....


Dancing in the New World

How Columbus Said Hello: He Tried Dancing – Phenomena: Curiously Krulwich

An odd bit of history here - talking about how Columbus and other new arrivals to the New World tried dancing as a way of starting up interaction with the natives.  (I guess "natives" is not PC?)

Loss of privacy

God knows that the concept of wanting to be a champion athlete in any sporting endeavour is foreign to me:  the idea of losing a huge amount of each day to exercise, winning a medal or five and then not knowing what to do with your life after you've peaked at (say) 21 sounds horrible.

But it does seem to be what quite a few swimming champions, in particular, go through. 

And so it is that I feel sorry for Ian Thorpe.   And his point about loss of privacy in his teenage years again seems oddly relevant to the Safe Schools program discussion:
The Olympic champion Ian Thorpe has said he would have come out earlier if he’d had more time to become comfortable with his sexuality.....

Thorpe said he was first asked about his sexuality when he was just 15.

“If I had a little bit more time when I was younger I would have come out, because I would have been comfortable with that,” Thorpe said. “And that’s why I think, we’re all making the same point, around why we don’t push people to come out.
Again, I should say that I think much of the concern about the program is being overblown by conservatives (the latest politician to attach himself to outrage about it - Tony Abbott!  Could this man possibly "do a Rudd" any more thoroughly than he clearly is?)

But on the other hand - it sure seems to me that the program might have the consequence of making some teenagers feel under pressure amongst their peers in a similar way that Thorpe did not appreciate.

Careful with the green tea

Herbal supplements linked to at least six Australian organ transplants since 2011, data shows - ABC News 

The "herbal supplement" that is most discussed in this article is green tea extract.  It's put in some protein supplements, apparently, but:
There is research that suggests green tea extract can become toxic at median level at the equivalent of 24 cups in a day.

An unusual form of OCD

Here's an odd story, from a therapist at an American website about Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (and which, as far as I can tell, is not aligned with any Christian group), that has particular interest in light of the ongoing discussion about the Safe Schools program and its material related to teenage sexuality:
"Let me guess," I said, leaning forward.  "One day you were doing something you always do, and suddenly you started to pay attention to yourself in a different way.  As you focused on yourself, the thought suddenly came into your head, "Maybe this means I'm gay.  How do I really know I'm not?"  I kept on, "Since then, you keep checking yourself, you know, like looking at guys or girls and trying to see who you're attracted to.  Maybe you watch the way you talk, or walk, or move your hands, to see if you do these things the way a gay or straight person would.  How am I doing so far, Mike?"  He stared at me and answered, "I feel creeped out, like you're reading my mind."
I went on to explain that I definitely didn't have ESP (as far as I knew), but that he was suffering from a very common form of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (also known by the abbreviation OCD); one that doesn't get talked about very much, and certainly not a lot by people his age.  Many people with obsessive sexual identity thoughts shared the particular symptoms I had outlined, so they weren't very hard to guess at.  I related to him that at one time, a few years ago, I actually found myself treating six different people at once for this type of OCD, and that we had even held a support group meeting just for this group.  I added that these thoughts weren't confined to heterosexual people, and that I had even treated a gay patient who was troubled by obsessive thoughts that he might be straight.
Michael went on to confirm that his doubtful thoughts of being gay came on suddenly one day when he was looking through one of his bodybuilding magazines.  He remembered looking at one picture in particular and thinking, "I wonder if I find this guy attractive?"  With that, he suddenly became very anxious and horrified that he could have such a thought.  He also found that in the days following, he couldn't get the thought out of his head.  What made things worse, was that the other guys in school had a habit of teasing each other about being gay, a not unusual occurrence.  Remarks that he used to shrug off now became very frightening.  "What if they really can tell?" he remembered asking himself.  He found himself avoiding his usual crowd.  He threw away the bodybuilding magazines.  He stopped going to school.  Nothing helped.  It seemed like the harder he worked to avoid thinking about whether or not he was gay, the more he would think about it.  "But I'm not gay," he emphasized, "I'm not attracted to guys, so why am I thinking this?  I've never been attracted to guys!"  He paused for a moment.  "But the thoughts seem so real."
OK, it may not be very common, but it's possible that the Safe Schools program leads to this in some teenagers.

[Not sure about any teenager with bodybuilding magazines, though.  I can't get my head around that as an interest...]

Dinner party downer

Wittgenstein, bewitched | TLS

Perhaps there's not much new in the biographical details in this review of a book about Wittgenstein, but it is amusing to read lines like this:
As in many of these pieces, one thing that comes across in
Malcolm’s memoir is how incredibly difficult Wittgenstein was. “It was
always a strain to be with Wittgenstein”, Malcolm writes; “not only were the
intellectual demands of his conversation very great, but there was also his
severity, his ruthless judgements, his tendency to be censorious, and his
depression.” Von Wright concurs: “each conversation with Wittgenstein was
living through the day of judgement. It was terrible”.
[Kant, I will remind the reader, was supposed to good dinner party company.]

All true

Ross Douthat says Obama created Trump. That’s nuts.

William Saletan writes scathingly of the Republican blame game:

 In Trump, Republican voters have found their anti-Obama. Trump spurns
not just political correctness, but correctness of any kind. He lies
about Muslims and 9/11, insults women and people with disabilities,
accuses a judge of bias for being Hispanic, and hurls profanities. Trump
validates the maxim that in presidential primaries, the opposition
party tends to choose a candidate who differs temperamentally from the
incumbent. Obama is an adult. Therefore, Republicans are nominating a
child.
Ouch, as they say.